| $Date$ | +
-
Trends in the fetchmail project's growth
-The scattergram below was made with Gnuplot 3.7 from data culled directly -out of the project NEWS file using two custom shellscripts, timeseries and growthplot.+
+
Trends in the fetchmail project's growth
-
+
The scattergram below was made with Gnuplot 3.7 from data pulled +directly out of the project NEWS file using two custom +shellscripts, timeseries and growthplot. If you see a broken-image icon, +upgrade to a browser that can +view PNGs.
-The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. The -horizontal scale is days since baseline, which is when I started -collecting statistics in October 1996 at version 1.9.0. Left vertical -scale is number of participants. There is one data point for each -release; therefore, the changes in density of marks indicate release -frequency.+
The graph shows the population growth of the fetchmail project. +The horizontal scale is days since baseline, which is when I +started collecting statistics in October 1996 at version 1.9.0. +Left vertical scale is number of participants. There is one data +point for each release; therefore, the changes in density of marks +indicate release frequency.
+ +The peak in the earliest part of the graph (before the note "Bad addresses dropped") seems to be an artifact; I was not regularly -dropping addresses that became invalid at the time. Turnover on the -list seems to be about 5% per month (but that's my estimate, I don't -have numbers on this).
+dropping addresses that became invalid at the time. Turnover on the +list seems to be about 5% per month (but that's just my estimate, I +don't have numbers on this).
-The blue scatter of squares is total -participants. The green scatter of crosses is -the count of people on fetchmail-friends after I split the list. The -violet scatter of x marks is the population -of fetchmail-announce after the split.+
The blue scatter of squares is total +participants. The green scatter of crosses +is the count of people on fetchmail-friends after I split the list. +The cyan scatter of diamonds is the +population of fetchmail-announce after the split.
-The brown scatter of asterisks tracks project -size in lines of code (right vertical axis). The scale relationship -between this scatter and the other three is arbitrary.+
The brown scatter of diamonds tracks +project size in lines of code (right vertical axis). The scale +relationship between this scatter and the other three is +arbitrary.
-This graph is quite revealing. Several trends stand out:+
This graph is quite revealing. Several trends stand out:
-
-Over time, the project population displays rather consistent linear growth.
+
Over time, the project population displays rather consistent +linear growth.
+ -
-The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in October
-1997, when I declared the code to be out of development and in
-maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.
+
The key event in the project's lifetime was release 4.3.0 in +October 1997, when I declared the code to be out of development and +in maintainance mode, and split the fetchmail list.
+ -
-The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in the
-project's history (the gap in that run happened when I took a two-week
-vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.
+
The run-up to 4.3.0 saw the most intensive spate of releases in +the project's history (the gap in that run happened when I took a +two-week vacation). It was followed by a significant slowdown.
+ -
-After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable around
-an average of about 250 participants.
+
After 4.3.0, the developer population remained fairly stable +around an average of about 250 participants.
+ -
-Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the announce list,
-among people using fetchmail but not active co-developers.
+
Essentially all population growth after 4.3.0 happened on the +announce list, among people using fetchmail but not active +co-developers.
+ -
-The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps logarithmic.
+
The growth trend in code size looks sublinear, perhaps +logarithmic.
+
+
The linear growth trend in population is particularly +interesting; a priori we might expect geometric or logistic growth, +given that the project spreads by word of mouth.
+ +It has been suggested that the linear growth rate is the result +of a situation in which both number of projects and the population +of eligible programmers are rising on trend curves of the same +(probably exponential) rate.
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+Eric S. Raymond <esr@thyrsus.com> + + |